Brent spot doubled in three months, and has now spent 34 trading days above $100

Oil had seemed to be calming down by early summer. The Europe Brent spot price, the price for physical cargoes published by the US Energy Information Administration, fell from $124 at the end of April to $68.53 on 2 July. Three months later, on 2 October, it was $135.51, almost exactly double.

Brent spot has closed above $100 on every trading day from 3 September to 20 October, the latest EIA data point: 34 trading days in a row. The September average was $114.16 and October to the 20th averaged $124.96, the highest monthly average in the data we hold from late April.

Spot and futures have come apart

The spot price is not the number most news reports quote. Brent futures for December delivery settled at $108.82 on 21 October and $113.17 on 22 October, their highest since late April, after strikes on Saudi infrastructure and on tankers in the Gulf. Spot was $115.22 on 20 October. When physical oil costs more than oil for later delivery, it usually means supply available now is scarce.

What it costs India

India imports most of its crude, and about half of it has come from the Middle East. In September its merchandise imports were $74.61 billion and the trade deficit widened to $30.21 billion, from $26.86 billion in August. Wholesale inflation reached 11.39% in September and retail inflation 5.54%, and on 7 October the RBI raised the repo rate to 5.50%, its first increase since February 2023.

The rupee has absorbed part of the shock. It was at 94.94 to the dollar on 23 October, and the RBI’s foreign exchange reserves have fallen by $64.7 billion since early September.

Each month of $115 oil is another month of a $30 billion trade gap.

Sources: US Energy Information Administration, Europe Brent spot price FOB (daily, to 20 October 2026); Brent futures settlement from DTN, 22 October 2026; trade data from the Ministry of Commerce (September 2026, via Business Today); inflation from MoSPI and the Office of the Economic Adviser; FBIL reference rate; RBI. Not investment advice.